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버냉키, '전국 및 지역경제 개괄' 연설문(원문)

기사입력 : 2007년11월30일 09:02

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※ 번역할 언어 선택

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

National and regional economic overview

At the presentation of the Citizen of the Carolinas Award, Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, Charlotte, North Carolina
November 29, 2007

Good evening. I thank the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for bestowing on me this year’s Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I deeply appreciate the honor, and I am grateful for the opportunity it gives me to speak to you this evening. I am also delighted to be here in Charlotte. My wife Anna and I are looking forward to visiting family and friends during our time here in the Queen City.

The focus of my brief remarks this evening will be the Charlotte region and how the area and the economy have changed since I regularly visited my grandparents here some four-and-a-half decades ago. First, though, I would like to share a few thoughts on the U.S. economy and the considerations that we at the Federal Reserve will be weighing as we prepare for our policy meeting on December 11, less than two weeks from now.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy making arm of the Federal Reserve System, last met on October 30-31. At that meeting, the Committee cut its target for the federal funds rate, the key policy interest rate, by 25 basis points (1/4 of a percentage point), following a cut of 50 basis points in September. Economic growth in the period leading up to the October meeting had proven quite strong, as confirmed by this morning’s figures on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). At its meeting, however, Committee members took the view that tightening credit conditions--the product of ongoing stresses in financial markets--and some intensification of the correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic activity going forward. Specifically, growth appeared likely to slow significantly in the fourth quarter from its rapid third-quarter rate and to remain sluggish in early 2008. The Committee expected that economic growth would thereafter gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved. Inflation was seen as edging down next year, approaching rates consistent with price stability; however, the Committee remained concerned about the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead to an increase in the public’s long-term inflation expectations.

How has the economic picture changed in the month since that meeting? As is often the case, the incoming economic data have been mixed. In the market for residential real estate, indicators of construction and home sales have continued to be weak. In contrast, the labor market remained solid in October, with some 130,000 new jobs added to private-sector payrolls and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.7 percent. Claims for unemployment insurance have drifted up a bit in recent weeks, although, on average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate expansion in employment. We will, of course, have the labor market report for November next week, and in the coming days we will continue to draw on anecdotal reports, surveys, and other sources of information about employment and wages. Continued good performance by the labor market is important for maintaining the economic expansion, as growth in earnings helps to underpin household spending.

With respect to household spending, the data received over the past month have been on the soft side. The Committee will have considerable additional information on consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting. I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead.

Core inflation--that is, inflation excluding the relatively more volatile prices of food and energy--has remained moderate. However, the price of crude oil has continued its rise over the past month, a rise that will be reflected in gasoline and heating oil prices and, of course, in the overall inflation rate in the near term. Moreover, increases in food prices and in the prices of some imported goods have the potential to put additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on maintaining the public’s confidence that inflation will be well controlled. We are accordingly monitoring inflation developments closely.

The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to shape the Committee’s outlook for the economy; however, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October. Investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions, prompted in many cases by credit-rating agencies’ downgrades of securities backed by residential mortgages. The fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing), and increased short-term funding pressures. These developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors. Needless to say, the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy.

In sum, as I have indicated, we will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days. In making its policy decision, the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially. In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments in the financial markets.

Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses in financial markets make the uncertainty surrounding the outlook even greater than usual. We at the Federal Reserve will have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in the United States.

Charlotte and the Carolinas: Personal Connections
I’d like now to speak a bit about Charlotte and the region from a personal as well as an economic perspective. My family has a long connection with Charlotte. My maternal grandparents, originally immigrants from Eastern Europe, moved here from Connecticut when my mother was a teenager, and she finished high school here. My parents met while attending different campuses of the University of North Carolina--my father at UNC-Chapel Hill, my mother at UNC-Greensboro (then a women’s college). I was raised from early childhood in the small town of Dillon, South Carolina, about two hours from here. My family settled in Dillon because my paternal grandfather bought a drug store there in 1941, and my father and his brother followed in his footsteps as town pharmacists. In Dillon, a town that was always very short of the more regular kind of doctor, my father and uncle were popularly known as Dr. Phil and Dr. Mort, and the prescriptions they dispensed were often accompanied by their free advice on maintaining good health.

I often visited my maternal grandparents’ home on Cumberland Avenue in Charlotte, sometimes with my parents and sometimes on my own, and I have many fond memories of those visits. A short walk from their home was a park where my grandfather often took me to feed the ducks that lived on a lake there. The name of that spot--Freedom Park--was sufficiently like my grandparents’ surname--Friedman--for me as a small child to conclude that it was actually called Friedman Park. I was suitably impressed by the honor the city authorities had apparently given my grandparents. Grandpa Friedman taught me to play chess when I was five or six; he let me win at first, but after a few years I was no longer a pushover, and the games became very, very serious. Grandma Friedman was a wonderful cook, and if you dig deep enough into the archives of the Charlotte Observer, you will find a large photo of a much younger me under the headline, “Ben Loves Grandma’s Blintzes,” together with her recipe for that dish. Unfortunately, my grandmother died when I was thirteen, and when my grandfather came to live with us in Dillon, the regular trips to Charlotte ended. I am pleased to say, though, that my connection to this city has since been re-established, as my parents have retired to Charlotte, and my brother (a lawyer in town) and his family live here, too. So I still feel like an honorary Charlottean as well as a Carolinian.

In my periodic visits to the Carolinas, I have been enormously impressed by the social and economic changes that have emerged in what has aptly been called the New South. This transformation has not been easy. In Dillon in the 1960s, I attended a segregated public school; but I did have African-American friends, and one of them was instrumental in persuading me to attend Harvard University--a critical step, as it turned out, in my life and career. Now, in Dillon, Charlotte, and elsewhere in the Carolinas, I see increasing cooperation among people of different races and backgrounds to achieve common civic and economic goals.

The Transformation of the Economy in the Carolinas
Economically speaking, Carolinians have faced the same challenge confronting many other parts of the country, that is, to replace jobs lost in old-line manufacturing industries by creating jobs in services such as health care and hospitality while simultaneously adapting to globalization and advancing technology. Here as elsewhere, the Carolinas have met this challenge through education and by building on regional strengths. As I’ve stressed on previous occasions, the quality of the workforce is the single most important factor in an economy’s success. In a rapidly changing world, economically valuable skills can be maintained only through learning that extends beyond traditional schooling to encompass training and re-training well into the middle years of life.

North Carolina offers a good example of these trends. In the past decade, the state has lost about one-third of the manufacturing jobs it had at the beginning of the decade--a loss of about 250,000 jobs. About 60 percent of the losses occurred in the textile and apparel industries. In the textile mills in particular, employment across the state is down two-thirds from the level of ten years ago. In the furniture industry, which accounts for the largest share of the remaining job losses in North Carolina manufacturing, employment in the state has dropped from 82,000 in 1999 to less than 51,000. The Charlotte area itself has experienced a number of plant closings, including the 2003 shutdown of the Pillowtex plant in nearby Kannapolis.

There is, of course, another side to the coin of economic change here. Despite losing an average of 25,000 manufacturing jobs each year over the past decade, North Carolina has managed a net increase of 44,000 jobs per year in total nonfarm employment over the same period. Those two numbers together imply that, on average, North Carolina has enjoyed an annual net gain of 69,000 nonmanufacturing jobs. The largest net increases have been in education and health care, professional and business services, and the leisure and hospitality sector. Thus, like many other vibrant regions of the country, the Charlotte area has grown by developing a high-productivity service economy.

Indeed, what happened to the former Pillowtex site itself is a good metaphor for the transformation under way in the region. Though the loss of manufacturing jobs is painful, the ongoing development of the Pillowtex site as the North Carolina Research Campus illustrates this region’s ability to shift resources from industries that are shrinking to those that are expanding The North Carolina Research Campus is a public-private, 350-acre life sciences hub near Charlotte that includes partnerships with Duke University, the University of North Carolina, the North Carolina Community College System, and other institutions of higher education. This is one high-profile example, but the transformation has also been happening in less dramatic fashion through the development of hundreds of smaller businesses throughout the region.

Even within the manufacturing sector, a number of firms--typically smaller operations with relatively few employees--have begun to exploit nontraditional niches. Some recent examples of emerging industrial operations across the state include primary metal manufacturing, machinery production, and the manufacture of nonwoven fabrics (Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, 2007). That last category includes a remarkably wide variety of engineered fabrics, ranging from those used to make doctors’ and nurses’ operating-room garb to some used in roofing materials; those products are especially interesting because they represent a small but fast-growing segment of specialty textiles within the broader textile industry.

The transformation of this region has been aided by its reputation as a desirable location in which to live and work. Census data and statistics from interstate moving companies indicate a heavy flow of people moving into Charlotte from other states, including large numbers of educated workers. Overall, the area has gained an average of 39,000 net new residents every year since 1997. (You probably feel that you see all those people every day in traffic.) Without a doubt, Charlotte’s status as one of the preeminent financial centers of the country lies behind much of the inflow.

Importance of Charlotte as a Financial Services Center
Charlotte’s roots as a financial center stretch back two centuries. From 1800 to 1848, the city was the center of U.S. gold production, and a branch of the U.S. Mint operated here from 1837 to 1913. More recently, North Carolina’s legal framework has been important to the growth of the banking system. Because the state had long allowed in-state branch banking, homegrown banks here had a head start when interstate banking became possible--first regionally, in the mid-1980s, and then nationally with the 1994 passage of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (Hills, 2007).

North Carolina’s early adoption of branch banking is a good example of a “first mover” gaining a strategic advantage. The banking statutes allowed banks in North Carolina to become larger than their counterparts in other states and helped them develop expertise in running larger branch networks. The result has been a rapid increase in the size of banks located in the state: In 1970, only three banks from the entire South, including two from North Carolina, were among the fifty largest U.S. banks ranked by assets, today, three of the top ten U.S. banks are headquartered in Charlotte alone (Hills, 2007).

One of the key advantages of Charlotte and other metropolitan centers in North Carolina has been the ability to attract and retain educated workers: Among adults aged 25 or older, 31 percent in metro centers hold at least a bachelor’s degree, versus 17 percent in rural areas (U.S. Census Bureau, 2006). In some cases, growing urban areas like Charlotte are the beneficiaries of a positive dynamic: The city’s modern, service-oriented economy attracts skilled and educated workers; the presence of a skilled workforce attracts new firms to the area and also promotes the development of amenities such as high-end restaurants and cultural activities; these opportunities and amenities then attract additional highly skilled workers.

The Challenge of Education in North Carolina
Cities like Charlotte will probably continue to attract highly educated and skilled workers from other areas of the country, but improving the skills of local workers--especially those displaced by industries in decline--remains critical for both urban and rural areas in the state. Four-year institutions play an important role in meeting that challenge, but they are not the sole means for developing workforce skills. For example, in the 2004-05 school year, the North Carolina Community College System served nearly 780,000 students in fifty-eight institutions. The average community college student in the state is thirty years old and likely working while attending school (North Carolina Community College System, 2006). Because they offer education closely tailored to employer demands in the local workplace, community colleges in North Carolina, as elsewhere, play an essential role in training and retraining workers. Moreover, they do so at a relatively low cost. In general, we must move beyond the view that education is something that takes place only in K-through-12 schools and four-year colleges, as important as those are. Education and skills must be provided flexibly and to people of any age.

I will close my comments on education with a pitch for financial literacy. In today’s complex financial marketplace, a basic understanding of financial tools and markets and an appreciation of the need to budget, save, invest, and borrow wisely are critical to the financial health of every individual. The Federal Reserve is advancing financial literacy locally through the Charlotte Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The Branch has active partnerships with organizations involved in financial literacy and economic education, including among others Jump$tart, Junior Achievement, LifeSmarts, Communities in Schools, the North Carolina Council on Economic Education, and the North Carolina Bankers Association. In short, advancing financial literacy is a high priority at the Federal Reserve.

Conclusion
I’d like to conclude by again expressing my gratitude to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for honoring me with its Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I am indeed proud to consider myself a citizen of the Carolinas and of the region. Thank you very much.


References
Employment Security Commission of North Carolina (2007). “Employment and Wages by Industry, 1990 to Most Recent,” Leaving the Board www.ncesc.com/lmi/industry/industrymain.asp.

Hills, Thomas D. (2007). “The Rise of Southern Banking and the Disparities among the States following the Southeastern Regional Banking Compact (225 KB PDF),” Leaving the Board Balance Sheet, vol. 11, pp. 57-104, http://studentorgs.law.unc.edu/ncbank/balancesheet.

North Carolina Community College System (2006). “Get the Facts,” Leaving the Board press release, July 3, www.ncccs.cc.nc.us/News_Releases/GetTheFacts.htm.

U.S. Census Bureau (2006). “2005 American Community Survey,” www.census.gov/acs Leaving the Board.

[뉴스핌 베스트 기사]

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이재용 장남 해군장교 임관식 '삼성家 총출동' [서울=뉴스핌] 김정인 기자 = 이재용 삼성전자 회장의 장남 이지호(24) 씨가 미국 시민권을 포기하고 해군 장교로 임관했다. 삼성가(家)에서도 처음 배출되는 장교다. 임관식에는 가족들이 총출동해 그의 첫 발을 함께했다. 해군은 28일 경남 창원시 해군사관학교에서 제139기 해군·해병대 사관후보생 수료 및 임관식을 거행했다. 이날 89명의 해군·해병대 장교가 임관했으며, 이 가운데 이씨는 기수를 대표해 제병 지휘를 맡았다. 해군 학사사관후보생 139기 임관식에서 대표로 선 이재용 삼성전자 회장의 장남 이지호씨의 모습. [사진=뉴스핌TV 유튜브 채널 캡처] 이 회장은 연병장 단상에 마련된 가족석에서 홍라희 삼성미술관 리움 명예관장, 이서현 삼성물산 사장과 함께 앉아 아들의 임관 과정을 지켜봤다. 다만 동생인 이원주 씨는 참석하지 않은 것으로 알려졌다. 행사 중간에는 이 회장과 홍 관장이 직접 연병장으로 내려가 이 씨에게 계급장을 달아주기도 했다. 이 회장은 경례와 함께 임관 신고를 받은 뒤 "수고했어"라고 격려했다.  이재용 삼성전자 회장과 홍라희 삼성미술관 리움 명예관장, 이서현 삼성물산 사장이 28일 오후 경남 창원시 진해구 해군사관학교에서 진행된 제139기 해군·해병대 사관후보생 임관식에 참석한 모습. [사진=뉴스핌TV 유튜브 채널 캡처] 이재용 삼성전자 회장과 홍라희 삼성미술관 리움 명예관장이 28일 오후 경남 창원시 진해구 해군사관학교에서 진행된 제139기 해군·해병대 사관후보생 임관식에 참석한 모습. [사진=뉴스핌TV 유튜브 채널 캡처] 모친인 임세령 대상홀딩스 부회장도 이모인 임상민 대상 부사장과 함께 행사장에 모습을 드러냈다. 이 회장과 임 부회장이 2009년 이혼한 이후 같은 공식 석상에서 모습을 드러낸 것은 이번이 처음이다. 임세령 대상홀딩스 부회장(왼쪽)이 28일 오후 경남 창원시 진해구 해군사관학교에서 진행된 제139기 해군·해병대 사관후보생 임관식에 참석한 모습. [사진=뉴스핌TV 유튜브 채널 캡처] 이 씨는 지난 9월 15일 해군 장교 후보생으로 입영했다. 2000년 미국에서 태어난 선천적 복수국적자로, 캐나다에서 고등학교를 졸업한 뒤 프랑스 파리정치대학(Sciences Po)에 진학했고, 최근까지 미국 대학에서 교환학생 프로그램을 이수한 것으로 전해졌다. 그는 해군 장교로 복무하기 위해 미국 시민권을 포기하고 입대를 선택했다. 재계에서는 이를 두고 '특권을 내려놓은 책임의 선택'이라는 평가도 나온다. 이 씨는 임관 직후 3박4일 휴가를 보낸 뒤 다음달 2일 해군교육사령부로 복귀해 3주간 신임 장교를 대상으로 하는 초등군사교육을 받는다. 이후 함정 병과 소속 통역장교로 근무하게 된다. 총 복무 기간은 훈련 기간을 포함해 39개월이며, 복무 연장을 하지 않을 경우 2028년 12월 2일 전역한다. kji01@newspim.com 2025-11-28 15:29
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법원 "방통위 YTN 최대주주 변경 승인 취소" [서울=뉴스핌] 김지나 기자 박민경 인턴기자 = 법원이 방송통신위원회의 YTN 최대주주 변경 승인 처분을 취소해야 한다고 판단했다. 지난해 방통위가 2인 체제에서 의결을 진행한 절차에 하자가 있어 위법하다는 이유에서다. 서울행정법원 행정3부(재판장 최수진)는 28일 YTN 우리사주조합이 방통위를 상대로 낸 최다액 출자자 변경 승인처분 취소소송에서 원고 승소 판결을 내렸다. 반면 전국언론노조 YTN 지부가 제기한 동일한 소송은 원고 적격이 없다고 보고 각하했다. YTN 사옥.[사진=뉴스핌DB]  재판부는 "피고(방통위)는 2인만 재적한 상태에서 의결을 거쳐 승인 결정을 내렸다"며 "이는 의결 절차상 하자가 있어 위법하다"고 설명했다. 이어 "방통위법이 규정한 '재적위원 과반수의 찬성으로 의결한다'는 문구는 형식적 해석에만 의존할 것이 아니라, 헌법이 보장하는 방송의 자유와 방통위를 합의제 행정기관으로 둔 입법 취지를 함께 고려해야 한다"고 밝혔다. 또 "합의제 행정기관으로서 방통위의 의사결정은 토론과 숙의 과정을 전제로 한다"며 "재적위원이 2인만 있을 경우 다수결 원리가 사실상 작동하기 어려워 합의제 기관으로서의 기능이 결여된다"고 지적했다. 재판부는 "방통위의 주요 의사결정은 5인 모두 임명돼 재적한 상태에서 3인 이상 찬성으로 이뤄지는 것이 바람직하다"며 "부득이한 사정으로 5인 미만이 재적할 경우라도 실질적 기능을 하려면 최소 3인 이상 재적해야 한다"고 덧붙였다. 앞서 유진기업과 동양이 공동 출자한 특수목적법인(SPC) 유진이엔티는 한전KDN과 한국마사회가 보유한 YTN 지분 30.95%를 인수하며 최대주주로 올라섰다. 방통위는 지난해 2월 7일 유진이엔티의 최다액 출자자 변경 승인을 의결했다. 이에 언론노조 YTN 지부와 우리사주조합은 당시 방통위 '2인 체제' 의결을 문제 삼으며 본안소송과 집행정지 신청을 냈다. 앞서 이들이 낸 집행정지 신청은 각각 각하, 기각 결정을 받았다.   pmk1459@newspim.com 2025-11-28 15:37
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    우크라이나 전쟁 장기화 시 건설 및 중장비 수요 불확실성 직접적. 글로벌 인프라 투자 지연으로 매출 성장 둔화 가능성 있음.
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